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Jan 2, 2012 | Predictions for 2012

It’s taken me a week to get my thoughts together about what 2012 may bring us, but here’s to a ritual that I’ve kept up for the better part of a decade. To be fair, predictions are really nothing but glorified educated guesses, but it feels appropriate to start a year with hopes for good (and not so good) news. First, let’s take a look at how I fared with 2011’s predictions:

Last year’s predictions

  1. iPad 2 comes out with a camera and a smaller size. Sort of: camera, yes, smaller size, sort of.
  2. Google or Apple makes a major PR gaffe Sort of: Google’s PR gaffe with flights to the Twin Towers and Apple’s 4S incident made headlines.
  3. Facebook comes out with a branded phone. No
  4. 3D television finally hits mainstream and efforts are made to integrate the technology into laptops as well. Not really
  5. Color e-Ink is demonstrated. No: in fact, Amazon’s Kindle Fire was a deliberate move away from the potential for color e-Ink specifically because user enjoyment with color e-Ink is apparently low.
  6. Twitter finally comes up with a business model. No
  7. Kim Jong Il or Castro dies. Yes
  8. Julian Assange disappears or goes into hiding. Not quite: he has succeeded in continuing the fight against his extradition to Sweden, however.
  9. South Sudan peacefully secedes from the north. Pretty much
  10. Gas prices soar during the summer. No: actually the converse was true.
  11. Unemployment drops as does, unfortunately, Obama’s ratings. Sort of
  12. A major volcano erupts Yes: Eyjafjallajökull and Puyehue
  13. A new element is discovered. No
  14. There’s a brief flurry of excitement regarding extraterrestrials. No: though there were discoveries of planets in the Goldilocks zone.

I believe this year’s technology theme is going to be augmented reality. Camera and mobile sensing technology is at a point where developers and designers are itching to create new things with what is already available. Augmented reality allows new modes of interaction beyond the simple Monocle view in Yelp, and a new toolkit may become available this year.

  1. RIM suffers a setback: I quite frankly think the Blackberry has quite a limited future despite it’s raving success in the corporate culture, and 2012 may very well be the year where its users transition en masses to iPhones or Windows Mobile devices.
  2. Apple unveils a new iPad, iPhone and Apple TV: This is somewhat of a given though their foray into the TV realm will be interesting. The new iPad may very well be slimmer or sport a larger screen.
  3. Greece pulls out of the EU: This is somewhat drastic, but the EU has been dragging Greece by the collar and may very well say: I’ve had enough.
  4. Fidel Castro passes away: It’s about time.
  5. Facebook goes public and fares well but stocks in other recent offerings goes down.: Zynga’s IPO was a big disappointing finish to a year that started with fantastic sales of LinkedIn stock. Investors might cool down a bit this year.
  6. There is a major earthquake in either Tokyo or somewhere in California: there seems to be reasonable cause for concern in this regard.
  7. Higgs-Boson particles are categorically proven to exist: scientists around the world rejoice!

This entry was posted on Monday, January 2nd, 2012 at 5:24 pm, EST under the category of Future Me. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.